The Risks Lie in Complexity, Not in Black Swans

People talk scared about global warming, negative interest rates, Brexit, etc., but the real threat is not in those specifics. The real threat lies in complexity.

For evolutionary reasons, the human mind is not prepared for complexity. When facing the unknown, we are wired to fight or run away. But survival is no longer based on these two paradigms. It's increasingly based on coping with complexity — on managing complexity.

The risk lies in the gap between a decreasing quality of people in charge and an exponentially increasing complexity of the system. And this is relevant not just for big organizations but also for the economy as a whole, and even for individuals.

At some point, complexity surpasses the capability of elites — and people in general — to have a clear understanding of the world. From there, all decisions are just thumb guesses, and the system is basically like a plane flying without a qualified pilot. Collapse becomes almost inevitable.