Notes from The Singularity

Month: October 2020

CCP China: The Dream is Over

How did the CCP create such wealth as it did over the past 30years? They had the help of sympathetic American and European political leaders, and the help of a credulous investment community who sent good money after bad into the gaping maw that is the Chicom economy.

Also, giving the Chinese Most Favoured Nation Status and WTO membership was like giving them a AAA rating.… Read more...

Mass Inequality Reason III: Inflation

Social collapse seems to be characterized by wealth disparity, inadeqiate wages for non-elite workers, failing governments, debt defaults, resource wars and epidemics.

Inflation -adjusted oil prices are now much higher than they were 50-70 years ago, and this means that the contest BETWEEN DOMINISHING RETURNS AND EFFICIENCY has basically been won by diminishing returns for the last decades.… Read more...

Mass Inequality Reason II: Complexity

Its kind of paradoxical that technology and globalization has exponentially increased complexity and hierarchies.

In the early 70’s the vast majority of what we ate and drank came from within 50 miles of us.  Everything from the house to the furniture to the cars to clothes and shoes we wore were made in the US and/or Europe.Read more...

Mass inequality Reason I: cheap debt and buybacks

Share buybacks are part of the self-reinforcing loop that drives stocks higher. When the Fed pulls back, buybacks will get more expensive. The risky game of loading up the balance sheet with cheap debt to buy back shares, rather than invest in productive assets will balloon interest expenses.

If new assets were really productive (generate a higher return becuse ther are more jobs, tax revenues, etc.)Read more...

Notes on CBDCs

Regulatory changes in the US allowing for bank custody of digital assets are the acceptance that digital assets are not going away and in fact are the future.

 

No one needs to allow the banks to set interest rates based on capital availability or risks. CB’s can now create a defined cost of capital to whomever they please (if they get the powers by the Governments, which will come).… Read more...

5GL

Fifth generation languages (5GL) are purely declarative: they express what needs to be done, the machine establishes how, and does it. To use them you must be clear about WHAT needs to be done, NOT HOW it should be done.

The problem is that with the Internet we have moved back to third generation langs, hence the importance of programmers again.… Read more...

Caos y Conspiraciones Globalistas

Los fans del control centralizado (antes comunistas, ahora globalistas) tienen verdaderos problemas para entender que el mundo está lleno de actores racionales que se adaptan de forma dinámica a las condiciones de su entorno, provocando que el sistema en su conjunto deje de ser predecible.

El mundo no es lineal, sino complejo, y nadie puede planificarlo sin correr el riesgo de perderlo todo de forma inesperada.… Read more...

Académicos y Comerciantes

En la gente de perfil teórico o docente el objetivo es la precisión: completar un modelo aún a riesgo de que resulte impracticable. Es el caso de políticos y burócratas, que tienden a normalizar y regular todo. De esta forma, cualquier cosa que hagas está sujeta a algún tipo de normativa o impuesto.

En la gente de perfil práctico o de negocios el objetivo es lo práctico, los skills.… Read more...

La Vida es un Problema Probabilístico, no Evolutivo

El problema de lo improbable de la vida es que parte de un análisis ‘condicionado’, es decir la propia vida se felicita de lo improbable que es estar aquí. Pero el hecho de pensarlo implica que -aunque improbable- es posible.

En mi opinión no es un tema evolutivo sino de pura probabilidad. Sin entrar en las causas físicas, con el tiempo y el espacio tendiendo a infinito hay miles de millones de ‘jugadas’ aleatorias que pueden dar lugar a formas de vida.… Read more...

El Fracaso de las Redes Sociales

La gran promesa de las redes sociales hace más de 10 años era crear una nueva forma de promocionar ideas y negocios. Triunfaron en lo tecnológico, pero fracasaron en lo fundamental. Hoy las redes son como la TV: una forma más de alienación y control de las personas.

De hecho son una extensión de los gobiernos, y como tales se diseñaron algunas de ellas.… Read more...

Scarcity and the Idea of Fiat Money

The essence of politics is to generate and manage scarcity.

The modern idea of money is something totally separate from the concept of value: without real backing, manufactured from debt; free for some, unaffordable for others. And no matter who is in Parliament: its fundamental mission is to generate scarcity: scarcity of jobs, scarcity of land, scarcity of talent, scarcity of health.… Read more...