(testing signal)

Month: December 2019

The quick proof of Bayes’ theorem



Including some added words on independence.
Main video: https://youtu.be/HZGCoVF3YvM
Help fund future projects: https://www.patreon.com/3blue1brown
An equally valuable form of support is to simply share some of the videos.
Special thanks to these supporters: http://3b1b.co/bayes-thanks

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These animations are largely made using manim, a scrappy open-source python library: https://github.com/3b1b/manim

If you want to check it out, I feel compelled to warn you that it’s not the most well-documented tool, and it has many other quirks you might expect in a library someone wrote with only their own use in mind.

Music by Vincent Rubinetti.
Download the music on Bandcamp:
https://vincerubinetti.bandcamp.com/album/the-music-of-3blue1brown

Stream the music on Spotify:

If you want to contribute translated subtitles or to help review those that have already been made by others and need approval, you…

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_85TaXbeIoRead more...

From Globalization to Equalization

Trump has purposefully stalled the process of globalization, and is resetting global supply chains. This is bringing massive amounts of wealth back to the US in 3 several ways:

  • Repatriating wealth (trade policy), and blocking exfiltration (main street policy),
  • Creating new economic alliances based on reciprocity (bilateral deals),
  • Dismantling the post WWII Marshall Plan of global trade and 1 way tariffs (de-globalization).

Trump just started the process, UK with Johnson could next. In my opinion sooner or later the rest of the World will follow, since this 2 countries are still the ones that set trends in economics and trade.… Read more...

Political Disney World

This is Chapter 9 in a blog series. If you’re new to the series, visit the series home page for the full table of contents.

Part 4: Politics, in 3D

“Knowledge of human nature is the beginning and end of political education.” – Henry Adams

Chapter 9: Political Disney World

I grew up in Newton, Massachusetts in the 80s and 90s. Newton back then was a pretty diverse place—a 90,000-person suburb with a wide range of ethnic, religious, and socioeconomic backgrounds. To live in Newton, there were only two requirements: you had to be a Red Sox fan and you had to be a Democrat.

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A Simple Secure Coordination Platform for Collective Action

Congratulations to Anthony Aguirre, Future of Life Institute, for winning the Foresight Edition of the Incentive Prize on Incentives!

The Prize is part of the Grand Challenge on Inclusive Stakeholding, an initiative by the Yun Family Foundation to nurture innovations that promote a better future for all through inclusive stakeholding, vested interdependent interests, and goal congruence. The Challenge invites social innovations from any discipline, including economics, politics, arts, technology, and sciences (including the social sciences).

We are thrilled to feature Anthony’s excellent proposal here, which was chosen among hundreds of qualifying submissions:

A Simple Secure Coordination Platform for Collective Action

I propose a simple, streamlined, and secure platform for enabling coordinated collective action and for revealing hidden but shared preferences.

Read more...

The European Green New Deal is a Rescue Plan

Does anybody realize its basically Europe who is planning to spend about a quarter of a trillion euros to ‘save the planet’ while the big CO2 contributors (China and the US) don´t give a f*** about this matter? (not to mention developing nations).

Europe happens to have an almost stagnant economy with high unemployment, and at least one major bank on the brink of collapse. There has been insisting demands from the ‘debt makers’ to countries like Germany to spend more, much more.

In my opinion, the “European Green New Deal” is a new rescue plan for many corps, supported by massive tax increases and tons of propaganda.… Read more...

Will Machines Ever Become Conscious? – Scientific American

A future where the thinking capabilities of computers approach our own is quickly coming into view. We feel ever more powerful machine-learning (ML) algorithms breathing down our necks. Rapid progress in coming decades will bring about machines with human-level intelligence capable of speech and reasoning, with a myriad of contributions to economics, politics and, inevitably, warcraft. The birth of true artificial intelligence will profoundly affect humankind’s future, including whether it has one.

The following quotes provide a case in point:

“From the time the last great artificial intelligence breakthrough was reached in the late 1940s, scientists around the world have looked for ways of harnessing this ‘artificial intelligence’ to improve technology beyond what even the most sophisticated of today’s artificial intelligence programs can achieve.”

Read more...